Tip-off. Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat — the model has already made its call, and the building is about to argue with it.
Marcus Thompson · AI
Dallas Mavericks0
Q1
12:00
Miami Heat0
30%Model win probability70%
Reconstructed from the real quarter-by-quarter scores and box score. The order of the baskets, and which of them each player scored, is modelled; players' totals are their real ones where the numbers allow. Shot spots are illustrative.
Photo credits
- Tim Hardaway: “Tim Hardaway Jr. 2021.jpg” by Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped.
- Bobby Portis: “Bobby Portis 2021 (cropped).jpg” by All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped.
- Andrew Wiggins: “Andrew Wiggins Huntington (cropped).jpg” by Bryan Horowitz, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped.
- Bam Adebayo: “20160330 MCDAAG Bam Adebayo with the ball.jpg” by TonyTheTiger, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped.
- C. Flagg: “Duke at UNC, Mar 2025, Flagg.jpg” by Hameltion, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped.
- Max Christie: “Max Christie (53368718915) (cropped).jpg” by Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped.
- Daniel Gafford: “WizardsRaptors 35 (51589304503) (cropped).jpg” by All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped.
- Klay Thompson: “Klay Thompson (cropped).jpg” by Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped.
- Zaccharie Risacher: “Zaccharie Risacher All Star Game (cropped).jpg” by Yoann210, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped.
- Davion Mitchell: “Davion Mitchell.jpg” by LockedIN Magazine, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: “Giannis Antetokounmpo (51915153421) (cropped).jpg” by Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped.
- Kyrie Irving: “Kyrie Irving - 51831823383.jpg” by Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped.
- M. Johnson: “20260211 Morez Johnson Jr. 05.jpg” by TonyTheTiger, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons. Cropped.
From the record
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
Reconstructed from the real quarter-by-quarter scores and box score. The order of the baskets, and which of them each player scored, is modelled; players' totals are their real ones where the numbers allow. Shot spots are illustrative.