CourtFrame
Pricing
NBA

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat

Prediction & preview · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 • State Farm Arena

CourtFrame model · Lean

Atlanta Hawks

Projected margin: Atlanta Hawks by 0.6

67%Win probability
Atlanta Hawks 67%Bookmakers 59–4133% Miami Heat

Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice.

Pro Insight

Where the value is on this game

Pro compares our model with every bookmaker's price and flags the bets where the gap is big enough to matter — with the edge, expected value, stake size and a grade.

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7 Models7 of 7 favour Atlanta Hawks
  • Elo
    67%
  • Logistic
    60%
  • Logistic v2Pub
    75%
  • Logistic v2 + players
    75%
  • Gradient boosting
    73%
  • Gradient boosting + players
    75%
  • LLM panel
    64%

Power Index

Atlanta Hawks92.1↓3.7#2
Miami Heat15.4↓6.1#25
Net ratingWin %Schedule-adj.OffenseDefenseHealthMomentumClutch

Components scaled within the league this season. Rankings

Form · Last 5 · incl. last season

Atlanta Hawks2–2
LWWLL
Back-to-back
Miami Heat0–4
LLLLL
2 days rest

Game Preview

Atlanta Hawks host Miami Heat at State Farm Arena on Wednesday, October 28 in the NBA. Atlanta Hawks are 2–2 this season, Miami Heat 0–4. Miami Heat have lost their last 5 league games. In the CourtFrame Power Index, Atlanta Hawks are 2nd at 92.1 and Miami Heat 25th at 15.4. Atlanta Hawks play the second night of a back-to-back.

Key Factors to Watch

  • 17 of 7 CourtFrame models make Atlanta Hawks the favourite.
  • 2Power Index: Atlanta Hawks 2nd, Miami Heat 25th.
  • 3Atlanta Hawks: L-W-W-L-L in the last 5 league games.
  • 4Miami Heat: L-L-L-L-L in the last 5 league games.
  • 5Rest: Miami Heat 2 days, Atlanta Hawks a back-to-back.

Model Outlook(Win probability: 67%)

The CourtFrame model has Atlanta Hawks winning 67% of the time, by 0.6 points. Across our 7 models the range is 60–75%.

Probabilities, not guarantees. Not betting advice. How the model works

Injury Report

Atlanta Hawks
  • OUT
    Mouhamed Gueye
    Foot Fracture
  • OUT
    Henri Veesaar
    ACL Tear
  • OUT
    Mouhamed Gueye
    Foot Fracture
  • OUT
    Henri Veesaar
    ACL Tear
  • GTD
    Aaron Wiggins
    Knee Contusion
Miami Heat
  • DOUBTFUL
    Simone Fontecchio
    Illness

Updated daily. Data from official injury reports.

Matchup Insights

Pace
Similar Pace32.8 vs 30.4
Injury ImpactSignificant
Schedule EdgeEven

Game Info

League
NBA
Date
Wed, Oct 28
Time
7:00 PM EDT
Venue
State Farm Arena
Stage
Regular season