March Madness is built on first-round chaos, and the annual hunt for “giant killers” is already underway.
Using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), several double-digit seeds stand out as having the strongest statistical profile to survive the opening round and reach the Round of 32. The BPI-based view offers a data-driven snapshot of which lower-seeded teams are best positioned to pull off an upset in the tournament’s first game window.
What the BPI lens captures
BPI is designed to evaluate team strength and game outlooks using a combination of factors, providing a way to compare matchups beyond seed lines alone. In the context of the NCAA tournament, it can highlight where a lower seed’s underlying metrics align closely with — or even rival — its higher-seeded opponent.
Why double-digit seeds draw attention
Double-digit seeds enter the bracket with less margin for error, but they also often include teams that are peaking late, benefited from tough schedules, or carry styles that translate well to single-elimination play. The BPI approach focuses on which of those teams rate best to clear the first hurdle and advance.
The result is a short list of double-digit seeds that, by the numbers, have the highest potential to move on to the second round — a key early benchmark in a tournament where one win can reshape an entire region’s bracket.