The annual lament that March Madness has lost its Cinderellas is aimed at the wrong target, according to bracket analyst Joe Lunardi. In his view, the problem isn’t a lack of underdogs capable of winning — it’s that the current selection environment makes it harder for the kinds of teams that once fueled surprise runs to even reach the NCAA tournament in the first place.
Lunardi contends that the blame for Cinderella’s demise is misplaced. The tournament still produces upsets, but the pathway for lower-profile teams to earn bids has narrowed as selection standards increasingly emphasize résumé metrics that can favor teams from power conferences. That shift, he argues, reduces the number of potential bracket-busters in the field, which in turn changes how often fans see deep, unexpected runs.
A proposed fix: an eligibility floor
Lunardi’s solution is straightforward: establish an NCAA tournament eligibility floor. The idea is to create a clearer baseline standard for consideration — a threshold that would help define which teams belong in the field and, by extension, preserve access for the types of teams that have historically produced Cinderella stories.
Rather than treating the absence of Cinderellas as a mystery or a product of randomness, Lunardi frames it as a structural issue tied to selection criteria. If the goal is to get Cinderella back, he argues, the tournament needs rules that better protect the conditions that allow those teams to qualify — and then thrive once the bracket begins.